Tom Strignano Forex Exclusive

Greece Out Of Euro In A Month?

Tom Strignano — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:24:41 +0000

As leaders in Athens accepted the need for a new general election to end a national stalemate, the International Monetary Fund said Europe’s leaders should prepare for the possibility of a Greek departure from the single currency.

Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, warned she was “technically prepared for anything” and said the utmost effort must be made to ensure any Greek exit was orderly. The effect was likely to be “quite messy” with risks to growth, trade and financial markets. “It is something that would be extremely expensive and would pose great risks but it is part of options that we must technically consider,” she said.

Raising tensions still further, Germany warned Greek voters that the wrong result in next month’s election will force their country out of the single currency.

Greece’s president warned, perhaps most alarmingly, that its banks risk running out of money, posing a “threat to our national existence”.

Euro Rebound Is It Real?

Tom Strignano — Tue, 15 May 2012 12:38:36 +0000

The euro rose from the lowest level in almost four months against the dollar on better-than- estimated German growth that helped the 17-nation bloc avoid a second recession in three years. The low being my forecast-ed Trend Reactionary Number at 1.2813!

The shared currency also advanced from a three-month low against the yen after Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker signaled Greece may get extra time to meet budget- cutting targets, as long as the country forms a government committed to austerity. Australia’s dollar rose from an almost five-month low as a technical indicator suggested it had fallen too far.
Enlarge image Euro Falls to 4-Month Low on Greek Deadlock, Slowdown Concerns

The euro traded at $1.2833 as of 8:39 a.m. in Tokyo.

“The positive surprise in German GDP has caused a squeeze higher in the euro,” said Paul Robson, a senior foreign- exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in London. “The outlook remains weak and the political uncertainty is high. We think the euro will continue to weaken.”

The euro advanced 0.3 percent to $1.2859 at 6:35 a.m. New York time. It earlier slid to $1.2814, the lowest level since Jan. 18. The shared currency gained 0.4 percent to 102.78 yen, after touching 102.23 yesterday, the lowest since Feb. 16. The yen was little changed at 79.92 per dollar.

Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro region stagnated in the first quarter compared with the prior three months, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a 0.2 percent decline.
Financial Turmoil

Germany’s 0.5 percent expansion at five times the pace economists had estimated helped offset weaker GDP in the euro area’s peripheral economies. Europe’s financial turmoil has already pushed eight euro-region countries into recession, commonly defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.1 percent and German 10- year bunds fell for the first time in three days.

“Today’s data underlines the divergence across the euro- region, which you could argue is negative for the euro,” said Chris Walker, a currency strategist at UBS AG in London. “We expect the euro to grind lower.”

The ZEW Center for European Economic Research in Mannheim said its index of investor and analyst expectations, which aims to predict German economic developments six months in advance, slid to 10.8 from 23.4 in April. Economists forecast a drop to 19, according to a Bloomberg News survey.

Greece’s President Karolos Papoulias will attempt to persuade divided party leaders today to accept his proposal for a so-called technocratic government to avert new elections as concern mounts that the nation faces an exit from the euro area.
‘More Time ?’

“The Greek creditors may be willing to give Greece more time to deliver on fiscal austerity measures if Athens succeeds in forming a working government,” Valentin Marinov, head of European and Group-of-10 currency strategy at Citigroup Inc. in London, wrote in a note to investors today. “Some progress on the Greek political stalemate could help the euro and risk- correlated currencies.”
I expect Any Rallies to be capped at 1.3230 on the extreme upside, 1.2990 on the medium outlook.
Cheers
Tom

New Trns May 8th 2012

Tom Strignano — Sat, 12 May 2012 14:41:35 +0000

TRNS May 8 th Euro $
1.3674
1.3494
1.3314
1.3098
1.2958
1.2913
1.2812
1.2729
1.2555

Dol/JPY
86.27
84.05
83.00
81.84
80.63
79.55
78.36
77.22
75.88
72.93

$/CHF
.9795
.9543
.9418
.9292
.9121
.9012
.8864
.8736

GBP/$
1.6759
1.6539
1.6318
1.6074
1.5912
1.5847
1.5621
1.5434
1.5394

Aud/jpy
86.27
84.44
83.43
82.45
81.27
80.09
78.88
77.77

Aud/$
1.0417
1.0327
1.0278
1.0217
1.0181
1.0036
.9890
.9612

Elliott Wave

Tom Strignano — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 18:39:23 +0000

Rule Number One!!
Don’t trade your prophesy of the future. Trade the market. Don’t see
what isn’t obviously not there, or it will be very detrimental to your wallet.

The beauty and significance of R. N. Elliott’s work is chat he recognized
that markets are composed of groups of people that respond as crowd behavior
in the same way that other social groups respond to a cycle of
events- There is a process that evolves in almost every cycle of crowd
behavior that runs its course. This process results in a fairly predictable
pattern of behavior of cycles of optimism and pessimism. This process
and pattern of behavior is represented on price charts of financial markets,
as the price charts are simply reflections of the state of the psychology of
the group participating in the market.
Throughout the course of R. N, Elliott’s work developing his Wave
Principle, it is obvious he continually looked to refine and expand upon
the guidelines of his wave principle as applied to the markets. In Elliott’s
earlier work, there were no X waves, there were no “rules” and there was
no mention of Fibonacci numbers or ratios!
Elliott developed his theory over less than a ten year period from the
late 1920′s to the latter half of the 1930′s. It was in 1938 that Elliott’s
first monograph, The Wave Principle, was published by Charles Collins
and the following year that Elliott was commissioned to write a series of
articles on the principle for Financial World magazine.
It is these early works of Elliott that I find the most valuable. Here is
found the spirit of the fundamental truths of what Elliott discovered about
pattern and process in the cyclic development of the financial markets, unencumbered
with the need to explain every little twist and turn on the
financial charts. There were no X waves, no complex corrections, just
fives and threes. Occasionally, a fourth wave traded into the territory of
wave one. Occasionally, a third wave was the shortest impulse wave.
The form was more important than any rules. The process would not
be denied.
From 1938 – 1946 Elliott published his educational and forecast letters
(R.N. Elliott’s Market Letters, edited by Robert R. Prechter, Jr.). In these
letters it became evident that Elliott felt he must show his theory to be
right under all conditions, at all times. In these letters we find that he
made his theory fit whatever market activity unfolded. There are some
pretty wild counts in these letters. Here we are introduced to the dreaded
X wave (actually a # wave) which mysteriously shows up whenever a
market correction does not comply with a three (ABC) or five (ABCDE),
No correction will be denied its count!
It is also during this lime that Elliott begins to expound on the
Fibonacci number series, Elliott’s knowledge of Fibonacci number and
ratio is elementary at best. While he demonstrated some of the Fib counts
3-53
Pattern and Practical Elliott Wave Analysis
and ratios relating to some market activity of time and price, this aspect of
market activity was obviously not well thought out or researched by
Elliott. After what can only be considered a brief study of number, ratio
and geometry, Elliott was amazed and thrilled that he had discovered the
”secrets of the universe” and the great “laws of nature”, all conveniently
available on the shelves of his local bookstore, courtesy of Jay Hambridge,
Samuel Coleman, Manly P. Hall and others. (A little irreverence is due all
great men in order to maintain perspective and avoid idolatry,)
What is the point of this brief history of R. N. Elliott? The practical
application of Elliott’s Wave Principle to trading and investing decisions
has its strengths and weaknesses. Elliott did not describe a “law of the
markets” with inviolate rules. With a limited history of data and within a
fairly short period of time, Elliott recognized an important process that
developed in the cycles of market activity. He recognized that the form of
this process was fairly regular, which allowed for a certain degree of
predictability of future behavior. He recognized that markets have a fairly,
consistent symmetry of ratio based on the Golden Mean (1.618). He suspected
(rightfully so) that mis was the same process and same proportions
that are evident in almost all natural growth processes outside crowd
behavior.
When Elliott died in 1948, the understanding and application of his
principle of form and ratio in the financial markets was really only in its
infancy. Since the time of his death, far more has been written about
Elliott and his Wave Principle than Elliott wrote himself. Market analysts
over the years have had the opportunity to study thousands of charts of
many more markets than did Elliott. The great value of his principle has
been demonstrated time and again, as well as the frequent weaknesses.
Knowledge is never static. There is never the final word on anything.
Today, we find that Einstein’s Theory of Relativity may not be the
inviolate law it has been accepted to be for most of the century. How can
we say that Elliott’s Wave Principle may also not be as complete and
inviolate as some would like us to think?
In light of the above discussion, I will offer in the next article a few comments and
suggestions thai will help the analyst, trader and investor to apply Elliott’s
Wave Principle in a practical manner.

The Importance of Forex Trading Education

Tom Strignano — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 17:38:35 +0000

If you want to succeed in any endeavor, you need to have persistence and dedication. Even your daily life requires it because if you’re the type of person who is quite lazy and wants to goof around, you’ll attain nothing of importance in your life.

Ever since you were a little kid, you were already taught with the value of good education. From your nursery days, until you finally graduate in college, you have dedicated many years to get a good education. But it doesn’t end there.

Each time you encounter a new endeavor, activity, or thing, the first to come into your mind is to learn about that particular thing or activity. So you see, no matter what we do, education continues. And this is especially true with forex trading.

Statistics have shown that over 94% professional traders lose a lot of money every day in forex trading alone. But donít be discouraged; in fact why not use that piece of information to strive hard to get a forex trading education.

The financial market changes by the minute, or even by the second. Who knows which currencies are a good buy and which arenít. Most traders, specially the starters, believe that they can predict what is about to happen in forex trading. But you see there is more to predicting the market; you need to educate yourself still.

First things first, you must have a forex trading system which contains the key elements, namely: money management, risk, and execution. If you have a well developed system, which gives a lot of weight to money and risk management, over time you can actually carry on draw downs while expecting consistent returns.

Forex trading is not just about buying low currencies and then selling them when the price is high. Profitable traders can teach you more than just discipline, because you also need to learn about detachment. Ask a professional trader to show and guide you how it is done.

You must have the proper mindset in order to be a successful forex trader. To achieve this, your capital should have a positive return. It is not all about profits especially when you’re just a beginner. You should first determine if you have a reasonable return of your capital.

Most successful forex traders have undergone some sort of education. Since forex trading is a high risk endeavor, it is not wise to instantly jump into the trade.

If you purely rely on experience and instinct, you may not likely succeed in forex trading. But if you have undergone a forex trading education, you are more capable to handle demands and the stress that comes along with the trade.

Through forex education, you can learn all about the market mechanics, reading the forex chart, how software works, how it is closed, the right time to bid, and many more. It is the best possible route to take before plunging into forex trading.

The FX market is volatile, and you can understand the situation better if you know how to read charts. It will be easier for you to understand the different reasons behind these shifts, and can greatly help in minimizing the risks that you are going to undertake.

The very first things that you’ll learn in forex trading education are the basics. It includes margin concepts, order types, rollovers, bids, and leveraging. Aside from that, you can also learn about fundamental and technical analysis. And lastly, you should learn about trading psychology which can teach you about patience, discipline, and commitment.

It is also good if you can learn about the financial market’s history. And knowing the past mistakes made by other traders will teach us how to avoid such circumstances. You can get a forex education online or in a traditional class.

Having a forex education is an added advantage compared to those who havenít had any. This is especially helpful for starters, and even for those who have been in trading for some time.

Most professional traders highly recommend some form of forex education. With a little background and knowledge about the trade, it is a sure fire way to succeed in this line of trade. Instead of making wild guesses, why not take a forex education class, and make educated decisions when doing the actual trade.

New TRNs

Tom Strignano — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 16:24:34 +0000

TRNS Dec 26th 2011
Euro $
1.4390
1.4266
1.4030
1.3670
1.3490
1.3345
1.3176
1.2987
1.2733
1.2645
1.2212
1.2089
1.1987
1.1800
1.1255
1.1000

Dol/JPY
85.11
82.98
80.85
79.79
78.73
77.25
76.12
75.08
73.99
73.00
72.01
69.88

$/CHF
1.0329
1.0068
.9816
.9564
.9438
.9312
.9151
.9018
.8967
.8517
.8212
.7991
.7588
.7771
.6954

GBP/$
1.7556
1.7112
1.6684
1.6256
1.6042
1.5828
1.5556
1.5394
1.5112
1.4903
Aud/Jpy
89.83
87.76
85.55
83.41
81.27
80.20
79.26
78.31
77.17
76.05
73.88
72.78
71.83
69.88

Aud/Nzd
1.4507
1.4144
1.3781
1.3600
1.3418
1.3093
1.2933
1.2724
1.2539
1.2233
1.2000
1.1844

Aud/$
1.1241
1.0957
1.0684
1.0409
1.0272
1.0135
1.0237
1.0122
1.0094
.9948
.9803
.9567
.9259
.9101
.8966
.8606
.8252

Cad/Jpy
85.20
83.05
80.97
78.89
77.86
76.55
75.33
73.07
69.02

Chf/Jpy
93.20
90.85
88.57
86.30
85.16
84.03
83.33
82.06
80.87
76.39
73.08
68.08

Euro/Chf
1.3183
1.2851
1.2681
1.2512
1.2300
1.2141
1.2000
1.1953
1.1780
1.1268

Eur/Gbp
.8995
.8764
.8649
.8583
.8440
.8373
.8253
.8134
.7988
.7683

Eur/Jpy
109.46
106.65
105.25
104.23
103.50
102.76
101.29
99.82
94.28

Gbp/Chf
1.5411
1.5091
1.4818
1.4620
1.4555
1.4400
1.4350
1.4145
1.3942

Gbp/Jpy
130.33
126.98
125.31
123.64
121.06
119.45
117.65
115.94
112.66
109.51

Nzd/$
87.06
85.06
82.91
80.84
78.76
77.73
76.69
75.50
74.40
72.78
70.12
69.10
66.55
62.63

Nzd/Jpy
63.10
61.48
60.44
59.36
58.59
57.74
54.53
51.23
48.60

Dol/Cad
1.1169
1.0890
1.0611
1.0471
1.0331
1.0245
1.0085
.9938
.9712
.9566
.9387

Gold
1907.57
1864.19
1820.81
1778.99
1714.22
1690.66
1647.28
1625.59
1603.92
1572.81
1540.00
1512.00
1499.00
1460.00
1399.89
Silver
34.37
33.59
32.44
31.86
30.05
26.78
25.30
23.88
22.57
20.33
19.00
17.20

Fib Retrace How To Calculate

Tom Strignano — Tue, 04 Oct 2011 20:37:03 +0000

Euro/Chf Breaks A Trend Line And Fib Levels

Tom Strignano — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 15:31:01 +0000

Live Euro/Gbp Trade Aug 30 2011

Tom Strignano — Tue, 30 Aug 2011 19:48:12 +0000

Possible Explosion Soft Commodities Prices

Tom Strignano — Wed, 17 Aug 2011 13:02:32 +0000

The world is growing, that’s a fact. Some estimates say that by 2050 we could have 10.5 billion mouths to feed, and many of those people will want even better food.

The staple grains such as corn, soybeans, wheat and rice have all surged in price in recent years. But beyond those basics other more specialized food commodities values have surged too, and I think they have much further to go.

The term “soft commodities” is used in many different ways, but it primarily describes commodities that are not hard commodities, for instance: Gold, copper, and silver. Usually soft commodities are foodstuffs, primarily coffee, cocoa, and sugar. Sometimes grains, cotton and orange juice are also referred to as soft commodities.

Changing Tastes

Once diets in places like China were mainly rice and fish; now with the explosion of the middle class in these countries demand for coffee, cocoa, and sugar is surging. This extra consumption has never been in the demand matrix for soft commodities before and is ratcheting up prices substantially.

The surging demand in China and India has pushed soft commodity prices higher.

In 2011 we’ve seen record coffee exports. There is still a shortage of high-grade arabica beans, and prices have topped $3 per pound …the highest since 1977. Another soft commodity, orange juice, was at a near four-year high in June, after the lowest supplies in a decade in 2010.

Cocoa has been somewhat of the exception in 2011 because of increased exports. However it’s likely to resume its uptrend by 2012 as those exports ease.