Posts Tagged ‘dolyen’

Forex Talk In The Street~ Dollar/Yen

It appears to me that the Yen/dollar, the Yen/Aussie and the Yen/EUR crosses are all turning
against the Yen and in favor of these other currencies. If you look at the chart tof the Yen/EUR cross rate,
which appears tome to be tracing out a rather huge, month’s long, “head & shoulders” bottom. And also note the
chart of the Yen/Aussie cross which shows a trend now in place since May wherein the Aussie is gaining consistently relative to the Yen.
The Dollar also has been attempting to break out of the monthly bearish trend. If you look at the last post i did on dol/yen I was a bit early in suggesting to buy it. But the S/l Point of below 82.00 was strong.
The talk In the street is that the authorities in Japan shall applaud that move against their currency, for they want a weak yen, and they
need… badly… to see the Yen continue to weaken.

Earlier today, Mr. Yoshihisa Morimoto, a member of the Bank of Japan’s policy committee, said that the Bank
was prepared to expand its asset buying operations to insure a weaker Yen. He even hinted that the Bank was prepared to buy ETFs and other such assets, although
he was concerned that the ETF market was a bit illiquid and thus problematic for the Bank given its need for size.
The point here is that the Bank is prepared to do almost anything to weaken its currency. Talk In The Street suggests that the Bank take the simplest of all paths: create more Yen and sell them into the market via intervention now that the Yen is itself weakening. Simply put, the BOJ should sell (buy dollars)
now that the trend is down, “sailing” as it were “with the wind” rather than against it.

Talk In The Street~November 15th

The dollar on the  FOREX MARKET as the new trading week begins is mixed, for it has risen proportional to some of its major and
its minor currency trading partners while it has fallen comparative to others. Try as we might, notwithstanding, we see
little in the way of consistency in how the dollar has reacted since the end of the G20 meetings, for it has fallen relative to the EUR and Sterling, but it has risen relative to the Swiss franc; in other words it knows not what to do relative to Europe generally. If there is one consistency it is that currencies that are “China related”‚Ķ that is currencies where there is more Chinese trade related interest than in others‚Ķ such as the Yen and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars‚Ķ have weakened the most relative to the US dollar; otherwise
incompatibility reigns.

Concerning the G20 meetings, the consensus is that the Presidency has suffered a series of defeats at the meetings, coming home with little that was on its agenda to accomplish. We’ll not debate too greatly with that judgement, for the US went to the meetings hoping
to come away with rather strict numeric rules regarding trade deficits, budget deficits and the like and hoping too to come home with some consensus amongst the attendees that China’s currency policies were wrong and needed to be accompanied too.
The US may not have wanted to have China named directly in the post-meeting communiqu√©, but it diindeed hope that there might be some talk of “undervaluation”of the YUAN  at the very least. It got nothing of the sort.

To that end then the meetings were a disappointment, and for President Obama, who only a year and one half ago reigned exultant, having been adorned with a newly granted Nobel Peace Prize, they were a embarrassment. Reality is a harsh mistress. From my perspective, however, these meetings are always overhyped and the best that one can accomplish is to know that the lines of communication are always made more open amongst the attending nations, and that’s all we got was lip service!
Euro $ projected Range 1.3500-1.3820

GBP$  1.6190 1.5850.