Tom Strignano Forex Exclusive » Forex Analysis

Elliott Wave

Tom Strignano — Mon, 02 Jan 2012 18:39:23 +0000

Rule Number One!!
Don’t trade your prophesy of the future. Trade the market. Don’t see
what isn’t obviously not there, or it will be very detrimental to your wallet.

The beauty and significance of R. N. Elliott’s work is chat he recognized
that markets are composed of groups of people that respond as crowd behavior
in the same way that other social groups respond to a cycle of
events- There is a process that evolves in almost every cycle of crowd
behavior that runs its course. This process results in a fairly predictable
pattern of behavior of cycles of optimism and pessimism. This process
and pattern of behavior is represented on price charts of financial markets,
as the price charts are simply reflections of the state of the psychology of
the group participating in the market.
Throughout the course of R. N, Elliott’s work developing his Wave
Principle, it is obvious he continually looked to refine and expand upon
the guidelines of his wave principle as applied to the markets. In Elliott’s
earlier work, there were no X waves, there were no “rules” and there was
no mention of Fibonacci numbers or ratios!
Elliott developed his theory over less than a ten year period from the
late 1920′s to the latter half of the 1930′s. It was in 1938 that Elliott’s
first monograph, The Wave Principle, was published by Charles Collins
and the following year that Elliott was commissioned to write a series of
articles on the principle for Financial World magazine.
It is these early works of Elliott that I find the most valuable. Here is
found the spirit of the fundamental truths of what Elliott discovered about
pattern and process in the cyclic development of the financial markets, unencumbered
with the need to explain every little twist and turn on the
financial charts. There were no X waves, no complex corrections, just
fives and threes. Occasionally, a fourth wave traded into the territory of
wave one. Occasionally, a third wave was the shortest impulse wave.
The form was more important than any rules. The process would not
be denied.
From 1938 – 1946 Elliott published his educational and forecast letters
(R.N. Elliott’s Market Letters, edited by Robert R. Prechter, Jr.). In these
letters it became evident that Elliott felt he must show his theory to be
right under all conditions, at all times. In these letters we find that he
made his theory fit whatever market activity unfolded. There are some
pretty wild counts in these letters. Here we are introduced to the dreaded
X wave (actually a # wave) which mysteriously shows up whenever a
market correction does not comply with a three (ABC) or five (ABCDE),
No correction will be denied its count!
It is also during this lime that Elliott begins to expound on the
Fibonacci number series, Elliott’s knowledge of Fibonacci number and
ratio is elementary at best. While he demonstrated some of the Fib counts
3-53
Pattern and Practical Elliott Wave Analysis
and ratios relating to some market activity of time and price, this aspect of
market activity was obviously not well thought out or researched by
Elliott. After what can only be considered a brief study of number, ratio
and geometry, Elliott was amazed and thrilled that he had discovered the
”secrets of the universe” and the great “laws of nature”, all conveniently
available on the shelves of his local bookstore, courtesy of Jay Hambridge,
Samuel Coleman, Manly P. Hall and others. (A little irreverence is due all
great men in order to maintain perspective and avoid idolatry,)
What is the point of this brief history of R. N. Elliott? The practical
application of Elliott’s Wave Principle to trading and investing decisions
has its strengths and weaknesses. Elliott did not describe a “law of the
markets” with inviolate rules. With a limited history of data and within a
fairly short period of time, Elliott recognized an important process that
developed in the cycles of market activity. He recognized that the form of
this process was fairly regular, which allowed for a certain degree of
predictability of future behavior. He recognized that markets have a fairly,
consistent symmetry of ratio based on the Golden Mean (1.618). He suspected
(rightfully so) that mis was the same process and same proportions
that are evident in almost all natural growth processes outside crowd
behavior.
When Elliott died in 1948, the understanding and application of his
principle of form and ratio in the financial markets was really only in its
infancy. Since the time of his death, far more has been written about
Elliott and his Wave Principle than Elliott wrote himself. Market analysts
over the years have had the opportunity to study thousands of charts of
many more markets than did Elliott. The great value of his principle has
been demonstrated time and again, as well as the frequent weaknesses.
Knowledge is never static. There is never the final word on anything.
Today, we find that Einstein’s Theory of Relativity may not be the
inviolate law it has been accepted to be for most of the century. How can
we say that Elliott’s Wave Principle may also not be as complete and
inviolate as some would like us to think?
In light of the above discussion, I will offer in the next article a few comments and
suggestions thai will help the analyst, trader and investor to apply Elliott’s
Wave Principle in a practical manner.

New TRNs

Tom Strignano — Sun, 01 Jan 2012 16:24:34 +0000

TRNS Dec 26th 2011
Euro $
1.4390
1.4266
1.4030
1.3670
1.3490
1.3345
1.3176
1.2987
1.2733
1.2645
1.2212
1.2089
1.1987
1.1800
1.1255
1.1000

Dol/JPY
85.11
82.98
80.85
79.79
78.73
77.25
76.12
75.08
73.99
73.00
72.01
69.88

$/CHF
1.0329
1.0068
.9816
.9564
.9438
.9312
.9151
.9018
.8967
.8517
.8212
.7991
.7588
.7771
.6954

GBP/$
1.7556
1.7112
1.6684
1.6256
1.6042
1.5828
1.5556
1.5394
1.5112
1.4903
Aud/Jpy
89.83
87.76
85.55
83.41
81.27
80.20
79.26
78.31
77.17
76.05
73.88
72.78
71.83
69.88

Aud/Nzd
1.4507
1.4144
1.3781
1.3600
1.3418
1.3093
1.2933
1.2724
1.2539
1.2233
1.2000
1.1844

Aud/$
1.1241
1.0957
1.0684
1.0409
1.0272
1.0135
1.0237
1.0122
1.0094
.9948
.9803
.9567
.9259
.9101
.8966
.8606
.8252

Cad/Jpy
85.20
83.05
80.97
78.89
77.86
76.55
75.33
73.07
69.02

Chf/Jpy
93.20
90.85
88.57
86.30
85.16
84.03
83.33
82.06
80.87
76.39
73.08
68.08

Euro/Chf
1.3183
1.2851
1.2681
1.2512
1.2300
1.2141
1.2000
1.1953
1.1780
1.1268

Eur/Gbp
.8995
.8764
.8649
.8583
.8440
.8373
.8253
.8134
.7988
.7683

Eur/Jpy
109.46
106.65
105.25
104.23
103.50
102.76
101.29
99.82
94.28

Gbp/Chf
1.5411
1.5091
1.4818
1.4620
1.4555
1.4400
1.4350
1.4145
1.3942

Gbp/Jpy
130.33
126.98
125.31
123.64
121.06
119.45
117.65
115.94
112.66
109.51

Nzd/$
87.06
85.06
82.91
80.84
78.76
77.73
76.69
75.50
74.40
72.78
70.12
69.10
66.55
62.63

Nzd/Jpy
63.10
61.48
60.44
59.36
58.59
57.74
54.53
51.23
48.60

Dol/Cad
1.1169
1.0890
1.0611
1.0471
1.0331
1.0245
1.0085
.9938
.9712
.9566
.9387

Gold
1907.57
1864.19
1820.81
1778.99
1714.22
1690.66
1647.28
1625.59
1603.92
1572.81
1540.00
1512.00
1499.00
1460.00
1399.89
Silver
34.37
33.59
32.44
31.86
30.05
26.78
25.30
23.88
22.57
20.33
19.00
17.20

Euro/Chf Breaks A Trend Line And Fib Levels

Tom Strignano — Wed, 31 Aug 2011 15:31:01 +0000

Inner Circle Live Trading Session

Tom Strignano — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 14:44:42 +0000

Trend Reactionary Numbers As Of August 15th 2011

Tom Strignano — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 13:24:15 +0000

Click On Image To Expand!

You Can Choose Two Paths…On your Own Or A Short Cut!!

Tom Strignano — Mon, 08 Aug 2011 13:43:10 +0000

Forex Trading Course: A Must for Forex Beginners

In the world’s largest financial market where exchanges reach up to trillions of dollars each day, many people would really want to participate in this market. Aside from being the largest financial market in the world, Forex is also the most liquid market in the world where trades are done 24 hours a day.

A lot of traders have become very rich trading in the Forex market. And, many people who trade in the Forex market everyday have found a great way to replace their day jobs. Some even became millionaires almost overnight by just trading in this financial market.

Trading in the Forex market can be very attractive. However, you should also know that there have been people who suffered extreme financial losses in the Forex market. It is true that the Forex market offers a very good money-making opportunity to a lot of people, but it also has its risks.

It is a fact that people who didn’t have the right knowledge and skills trading in the Forex market suffered huge financial losses and some even went into debt. So, before you enter the Forex market, it is essential that you should have the necessary knowledge and skills as a Forex trader in order to minimize the risk of losing money and maximize the potential of making money.

Many people who were successful in the Forex market have went through a Forex trading course to get the knowledge and skills needed to successfully trade in this very liquid and very large financial market.

In a Forex trading course, you will learn about when it is the right time to buy or sell, chart the movements, spot market trends and also know how to use the different trading platforms available in the Forex market.

You will also be familiarized with the terminologies used in the Forex market. Even the basic knowledge about trading in the Forex market can be a great help with your money-making venture in the worldís largest market.

There are different Forex trading courses available, all you need to do is choose one that suits your needs as a trader. There are crash courses where all the basic things about Forex will be taught to you in a short period of time, full time online courses, where you will learn all about Forex through the internet and there are also full time real life classroom courses where you can learn the ropes about Forex in a real classroom with a live professor.

You can also become an apprentice. However, in order to learn a lot about Forex as an apprentice, you need to make sure that you have a seasoned Forex trader who can share a lot of things to you about the Forex market.

Here are some of the basic things you should look for in a Forex trading course in order for you to get the sufficient knowledge about Forex trading:

ï Margins
ï Leveraging
ï Types of orders
ï Major currencies

A good Forex trading course will also explain a lot about the fundamental and technical analysis of charts. As a trader, knowing how to analyze a chart is an essential skill that you should have. So, when you are looking for a Forex trading course, you should look for a course that offers fundamental and technical analysis instruction.

Stress plays a vital part in Forex traders. Knowing how to deal with stress is also a skill that you should develop. A good Forex trading course should teach you how to deal with stress and trade effectively and efficiently.

As much as possible, you should look for a Forex trading course that offer actual trading systems where students can trade real money on the Forex market or at least trade on dummy accounts in a simulated Forex market. This hands-on experience will greatly benefit you. Besides, the best way to learn about anything is by actually experiencing it. Live trading and simulations should be offered in a Forex trading course.

So, if you plan on getting involved in the Forex market, consider finding all these things in a Forex trading course. Developing the right knowledge and skills in trading in the world’s largest and most liquid market in the world will definitely help you make it to the top and achieve your dreams as a Forex trader.

Contact Me With Any Questions strignanoforex@gmail.com

Trend Reactionary Numbers Killing The Market Again!!!

Tom Strignano — Tue, 12 Jul 2011 16:35:06 +0000

Support and Resistance Zones

Tom Strignano — Mon, 11 Jul 2011 15:45:08 +0000

Because technical analysis is not an exact science, it is useful to create support and resistance zones. Each security or Currency has its own characteristics, and analysis should reflect the intricacies of the security. Sometimes, exact support and resistance levels are best, and, sometimes, zones work better. Generally, the tighter the range, the more exact the level. If the trading range spans less than 2 months and the price range is relatively tight, then more exact support and resistance levels are best suited. If a trading range spans many months and the price range is relatively large, then it is best to use support and resistance zones. These are only meant as general guidelines, and each trading range should be judged on its own merits.

We can see that the high of the trading range extended more than 20% past the low, making the range quite large relative to the price. Because the support break forms our first resistance level, we are ready to set up a resistance zone after the the new high is formed. At this point though, we are still unsure if a large trading range will develop. The subsequent low , which was just higher than the previous low, offers evidence that a trading range is forming, and we are ready to set the support zone. As long as the curreny trades within the boundaries set by the support and resistance zone, we will consider the trading range to be valid. Support may be looked upon as an opportunity to buy, and resistance as an opportunity to sell.

Methods to Establish Support and Resistance?

Tom Strignano — Sun, 10 Jul 2011 17:14:20 +0000

Support and resistance are like mirror images and have many common characteristics.

Highs and Lows

Support can be established with the previous reaction lows. Resistance can be established by using the previous reaction highs.

The above chart shows a large trading range. Support was established with the 3 primarily lows. After each bounce off support, the instrument traded all the way up to resistance. Resistance was first established by the first reactionary high. After a support level is broken, it can turn into a resistance level.

Support Equals Resistance

Another principle of technical analysis stipulates that support can turn into resistance and visa versa. Once the price breaks below a support level, the broken support level can turn into resistance. The break of support signals that the forces of supply have overcome the forces of demand. Therefore, if the price returns to this level, there is likely to be an increase in supply, and hence resistance.

The other turn of the coin is resistance turning into support. As the price advances above resistance, it signals changes in supply and demand. The breakout above resistance proves that the forces of demand have overwhelmed the forces of supply. If the price returns to this level, there is likely to be an increase in demand and support will be found.

Support & Resistance Minor Lesson Part II

Tom Strignano — Fri, 08 Jul 2011 13:05:56 +0000

What Is Resistance?
Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.

Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that the bulls have won out over the bears. A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyers have increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices. In addition, sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above the previous high. Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to be established at a higher level.

Where Is Resistance Established?
Resistance levels are usually above the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near resistance. In addition, price movements can be volatile and rise above resistance briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a resistance level broken if the price closes .125
above the established resistance level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish resistance zones.