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	<title>Tom Strignano Forex Exclusive &#187; Forex Trading</title>
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		<title>Elliott Wave</title>
		<link>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2012/01/02/elliott-wave/</link>
		<comments>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2012/01/02/elliott-wave/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jan 2012 18:39:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom Strignano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Psycology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bank Trading Systems]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex Analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex Trading]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Rule Number One!! Don&#8217;t trade your prophesy of the future. Trade the market. Don&#8217;t see what isn&#8217;t obviously not there, or it will be very detrimental to your wallet. The beauty and significance of R. N. Elliott&#8217;s work is chat he recognized that markets are composed of groups of people that respond as crowd behavior [...]]]></description>
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<p>Rule Number One!!<br />
Don&#8217;t trade <strong>your prophesy </strong><em>of the future. <em>Trade the market.</em> <strong>Don&#8217;t see<br />
what isn&#8217;t obviously not there, or it will be very detrimental to your wallet.</strong></p>
<p>The beauty and significance of R. N. Elliott&#8217;s work is chat he recognized<br />
that markets are composed of groups of people that respond as crowd behavior<br />
in the same way that other social groups respond to a cycle of<br />
events- There is a process that evolves in almost every cycle of crowd<br />
behavior that runs its course. This process results in a fairly predictable<br />
pattern of behavior of cycles of optimism and pessimism. This process<br />
and pattern of behavior is represented on price charts of financial markets,<br />
as the price charts are simply reflections of the state of the psychology of<br />
the group participating in the market.<br />
Throughout the course of R. N, Elliott&#8217;s work developing his Wave<br />
Principle, it is obvious he continually looked to refine and expand upon<br />
the guidelines of his wave principle as applied to the markets. In Elliott&#8217;s<br />
earlier work, there were no X waves, there were no &#8220;rules&#8221; and there was<br />
no mention of Fibonacci numbers or ratios!<br />
Elliott developed his theory over less than a ten year period from the<br />
late 1920&#8242;s to the latter half of the 1930&#8242;s. It was in 1938 that Elliott&#8217;s<br />
first monograph, The Wave Principle, was published by Charles Collins<br />
and the following year that Elliott was commissioned to write a series of<br />
articles on the principle for Financial World magazine.<br />
It is these early works of Elliott that I find the most valuable. Here is<br />
found the spirit of the fundamental truths of what Elliott discovered about<br />
pattern and process in the cyclic development of the financial markets, unencumbered<br />
with the need to explain every little twist and turn on the<br />
financial charts. There were no X waves, no complex corrections, just<br />
fives and threes. Occasionally, a fourth wave traded into the territory of<br />
wave one. Occasionally, a third wave was the shortest impulse wave.<br />
The form was more important than any rules. The process would not<br />
be denied.<br />
From 1938 &#8211; 1946 Elliott published his educational and forecast letters<br />
(R.N. Elliott&#8217;s Market Letters, edited by Robert R. Prechter, Jr.). In these<br />
letters it became evident that Elliott felt he must show his theory to be<br />
right under all conditions, at all times. In these letters we find that he<br />
made his theory fit whatever market activity unfolded. There are some<br />
pretty wild counts in these letters. Here we are introduced to the dreaded<br />
X wave (actually a # wave) which mysteriously shows up whenever a<br />
market correction does not comply with a three (ABC) or five (ABCDE),<br />
No correction will be denied its count!<br />
It is also during this lime that Elliott begins to expound on the<br />
Fibonacci number series, Elliott&#8217;s knowledge of Fibonacci number and<br />
ratio is elementary at best. While he demonstrated some of the Fib counts<br />
3-53<br />
Pattern and Practical Elliott Wave Analysis<br />
and ratios relating to some market activity of time and price, this aspect of<br />
market activity was obviously not well thought out or researched by<br />
Elliott. After what can only be considered a brief study of number, ratio<br />
and geometry, Elliott was amazed and thrilled that he had discovered the<br />
&#8221;secrets of the universe&#8221; and the great &#8220;laws of nature&#8221;, all conveniently<br />
available on the shelves of his local bookstore, courtesy of Jay Hambridge,<br />
Samuel Coleman, Manly P. Hall and others. (A little irreverence is due all<br />
great men in order to maintain perspective and avoid idolatry,)<br />
What is the point of this brief history of R. N. Elliott? The practical<br />
application of Elliott&#8217;s Wave Principle to trading and investing decisions<br />
has its strengths and weaknesses. Elliott did not describe a &#8220;law of the<br />
markets&#8221; with inviolate rules. With a limited history of data and within a<br />
fairly short period of time, Elliott recognized an important process that<br />
developed in the cycles of market activity. He recognized that the form of<br />
this process was fairly regular, which allowed for a certain degree of<br />
predictability of future behavior. He recognized that markets have a fairly,<br />
consistent symmetry of ratio based on the Golden Mean (1.618). He suspected<br />
(rightfully so) that mis was the same process and same proportions<br />
that are evident in almost all natural growth processes outside crowd<br />
behavior.<br />
When Elliott died in 1948, the understanding and application of his<br />
principle of form and ratio in the financial markets was really only in its<br />
infancy. Since the time of his death, far more has been written about<br />
Elliott and his Wave Principle than Elliott wrote himself. Market analysts<br />
over the years have had the opportunity to study thousands of charts of<br />
many more markets than did Elliott. The great value of his principle has<br />
been demonstrated time and again, as well as the frequent weaknesses.<br />
Knowledge is never static. There is never the final word on anything.<br />
Today, we find that Einstein&#8217;s Theory of Relativity may not be the<br />
inviolate law it has been accepted to be for most of the century. How can<br />
we say that Elliott&#8217;s Wave Principle may also not be as complete and<br />
inviolate as some would like us to think?<br />
In light of the above discussion, I will offer in the next article  a few comments and<br />
suggestions thai will help the analyst, trader and investor to apply Elliott&#8217;s<br />
Wave Principle in a practical manner.</p>
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		<title>The Importance of Forex Trading Education</title>
		<link>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2012/01/02/importance-forex-trading-education/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jan 2012 17:38:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom Strignano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forex trading systems]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[If you want to succeed in any endeavor, you need to have persistence and dedication. Even your daily life requires it because if you&#8217;re the type of person who is quite lazy and wants to goof around, you&#8217;ll attain nothing of importance in your life. Ever since you were a little kid, you were already [...]]]></description>
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<p>If you want to succeed in any endeavor, you need to have persistence and dedication. Even your daily life requires it because if you&#8217;re the type of person who is quite lazy and wants to goof around, you&#8217;ll attain nothing of importance in your life.</p>
<p>Ever since you were a little kid, you were already taught with the value of good education. From your nursery days, until you finally graduate in college, you have dedicated many years to get a good education. But it doesn&#8217;t end there.</p>
<p>Each time you encounter a new endeavor, activity, or thing, the first to come into your mind is to learn about that particular thing or activity. So you see, no matter what we do, education continues. And this is especially true with forex trading.</p>
<p>Statistics have shown that over 94% professional traders lose a lot of money every day in forex trading alone. But donít be discouraged; in fact why not use that piece of information to strive hard to get a forex trading education.</p>
<p>The financial market changes by the minute, or even by the second. Who knows which currencies are a good buy and which arenít. Most traders, specially the starters, believe that they can predict what is about to happen in forex trading. But you see there is more to predicting the market; you need to educate yourself still.</p>
<p>First things first, you must have a forex trading system which contains the key elements, namely: money management, risk, and execution. If you have a well developed system, which gives a lot of weight to money and risk management, over time you can actually carry on draw downs while expecting consistent returns.</p>
<p>Forex trading is not just about buying low currencies and then selling them when the price is high. Profitable traders can teach you more than just discipline, because you also need to learn about detachment. Ask a professional trader to show and guide you how it is done.</p>
<p>You must have the proper mindset in order to be a successful forex trader. To achieve this, your capital should have a positive return. It is not all about profits especially when you&#8217;re just a beginner. You should first determine if you have a reasonable return of your capital.</p>
<p>Most successful forex traders have undergone some sort of education. Since forex trading is a high risk endeavor, it is not wise to instantly jump into the trade. </p>
<p>If you purely rely on experience and instinct, you may not likely succeed in forex trading. But if you have undergone a forex trading education, you are more capable to handle demands and the stress that comes along with the trade.</p>
<p>Through forex education, you can learn all about the market mechanics, reading the forex chart, how software works, how it is closed, the right time to bid, and many more. It is the best possible route to take before plunging into forex trading.</p>
<p>The FX market is volatile, and you can understand the situation better if you know how to read charts. It will be easier for you to understand the different reasons behind these shifts, and can greatly help in minimizing the risks that you are going to undertake. </p>
<p>The very first things that you&#8217;ll learn in forex trading education are the basics. It includes margin concepts, order types, rollovers, bids, and leveraging. Aside from that, you can also learn about fundamental and technical analysis. And lastly, you should learn about trading psychology which can teach you about patience, discipline, and commitment.</p>
<p>It is also good if you can learn about the financial market&#8217;s history. And knowing the past mistakes made by other traders will teach us how to avoid such circumstances. You can get a forex education online or in a traditional class.</p>
<p>Having a forex education is an added advantage compared to those who havenít had any. This is especially helpful for starters, and even for those who have been in trading for some time. </p>
<p>Most professional traders highly recommend some form of forex education. With a little background and knowledge about the trade, it is a sure fire way to succeed in this line of trade. Instead of making wild guesses, why not take a forex education class, and make educated decisions when doing the actual trade.</p>
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		<title>New TRNs</title>
		<link>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2012/01/01/trns/</link>
		<comments>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2012/01/01/trns/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 01 Jan 2012 16:24:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom Strignano</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Blog]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[TRNS Dec 26th 2011 Euro $ 1.4390 1.4266 1.4030 1.3670 1.3490 1.3345 1.3176 1.2987 1.2733 1.2645 1.2212 1.2089 1.1987 1.1800 1.1255 1.1000 Dol/JPY 85.11 82.98 80.85 79.79 78.73 77.25 76.12 75.08 73.99 73.00 72.01 69.88 $/CHF 1.0329 1.0068 .9816 .9564 .9438 .9312 .9151 .9018 .8967 .8517 .8212 .7991 .7588 .7771 .6954 GBP/$ 1.7556 1.7112 1.6684 [...]]]></description>
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<p>TRNS Dec 26th 2011<br />
Euro $<br />
1.4390<br />
1.4266<br />
1.4030<br />
1.3670<br />
1.3490<br />
1.3345<br />
1.3176<br />
1.2987<br />
1.2733<br />
1.2645<br />
1.2212<br />
1.2089<br />
1.1987<br />
1.1800<br />
1.1255<br />
1.1000</p>
<p>Dol/JPY<br />
85.11<br />
82.98<br />
80.85<br />
79.79<br />
78.73<br />
77.25<br />
76.12<br />
75.08<br />
73.99<br />
73.00<br />
72.01<br />
69.88</p>
<p>$/CHF<br />
1.0329<br />
1.0068<br />
.9816<br />
.9564<br />
.9438<br />
.9312<br />
.9151<br />
.9018<br />
.8967<br />
.8517<br />
.8212<br />
.7991<br />
.7588<br />
.7771<br />
.6954</p>
<p>GBP/$<br />
1.7556<br />
1.7112<br />
1.6684<br />
1.6256<br />
1.6042<br />
1.5828<br />
1.5556<br />
1.5394<br />
1.5112<br />
1.4903<br />
Aud/Jpy<br />
89.83<br />
87.76<br />
85.55<br />
83.41<br />
81.27<br />
80.20<br />
79.26<br />
78.31<br />
77.17<br />
76.05<br />
73.88<br />
72.78<br />
71.83<br />
69.88</p>
<p>Aud/Nzd<br />
1.4507<br />
1.4144<br />
1.3781<br />
1.3600<br />
1.3418<br />
1.3093<br />
1.2933<br />
1.2724<br />
1.2539<br />
1.2233<br />
1.2000<br />
1.1844</p>
<p>Aud/$<br />
1.1241<br />
1.0957<br />
1.0684<br />
1.0409<br />
1.0272<br />
1.0135<br />
1.0237<br />
1.0122<br />
1.0094<br />
.9948<br />
.9803<br />
.9567<br />
.9259<br />
.9101<br />
.8966<br />
.8606<br />
.8252</p>
<p>Cad/Jpy<br />
85.20<br />
83.05<br />
80.97<br />
78.89<br />
77.86<br />
76.55<br />
75.33<br />
73.07<br />
69.02</p>
<p>Chf/Jpy<br />
93.20<br />
90.85<br />
88.57<br />
86.30<br />
85.16<br />
84.03<br />
83.33<br />
82.06<br />
80.87<br />
76.39<br />
73.08<br />
68.08</p>
<p>Euro/Chf<br />
1.3183<br />
1.2851<br />
1.2681<br />
1.2512<br />
1.2300<br />
1.2141<br />
1.2000<br />
1.1953<br />
1.1780<br />
1.1268</p>
<p>Eur/Gbp<br />
.8995<br />
.8764<br />
.8649<br />
.8583<br />
.8440<br />
.8373<br />
.8253<br />
.8134<br />
.7988<br />
.7683</p>
<p>Eur/Jpy<br />
109.46<br />
106.65<br />
105.25<br />
104.23<br />
103.50<br />
102.76<br />
101.29<br />
99.82<br />
94.28</p>
<p>Gbp/Chf<br />
1.5411<br />
1.5091<br />
1.4818<br />
1.4620<br />
1.4555<br />
1.4400<br />
1.4350<br />
1.4145<br />
1.3942</p>
<p>Gbp/Jpy<br />
130.33<br />
126.98<br />
125.31<br />
123.64<br />
121.06<br />
119.45<br />
117.65<br />
115.94<br />
112.66<br />
109.51</p>
<p>Nzd/$<br />
87.06<br />
85.06<br />
82.91<br />
80.84<br />
78.76<br />
77.73<br />
76.69<br />
75.50<br />
74.40<br />
72.78<br />
70.12<br />
69.10<br />
66.55<br />
62.63</p>
<p>Nzd/Jpy<br />
63.10<br />
61.48<br />
60.44<br />
59.36<br />
58.59<br />
57.74<br />
54.53<br />
51.23<br />
48.60</p>
<p>Dol/Cad<br />
1.1169<br />
1.0890<br />
1.0611<br />
1.0471<br />
1.0331<br />
1.0245<br />
1.0085<br />
.9938<br />
.9712<br />
.9566<br />
.9387</p>
<p>Gold<br />
1907.57<br />
1864.19<br />
1820.81<br />
1778.99<br />
1714.22<br />
1690.66<br />
1647.28<br />
1625.59<br />
1603.92<br />
1572.81<br />
1540.00<br />
1512.00<br />
1499.00<br />
1460.00<br />
1399.89<br />
Silver<br />
34.37<br />
33.59<br />
32.44<br />
31.86<br />
30.05<br />
26.78<br />
25.30<br />
23.88<br />
22.57<br />
20.33<br />
19.00<br />
17.20</p>
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		<title>Inner Circle Live Trading Session</title>
		<link>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/08/14/circle-live-trading-session-madness-analysis/</link>
		<comments>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/08/14/circle-live-trading-session-madness-analysis/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Aug 2011 14:44:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom Strignano</dc:creator>
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		<title>You Can Choose Two Paths&#8230;On your Own Or A Short Cut!!</title>
		<link>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/08/08/choose-paths-on-short-cut/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Aug 2011 13:43:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom Strignano</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Forex Trading Course: A Must for Forex Beginners In the world&#8217;s largest financial market where exchanges reach up to trillions of dollars each day, many people would really want to participate in this market. Aside from being the largest financial market in the world, Forex is also the most liquid market in the world where [...]]]></description>
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<p>Forex Trading Course: A Must for Forex Beginners</p>
<p>In the world&#8217;s largest financial market where exchanges reach up to trillions of dollars each day, many people would really want to participate in this market. Aside from being the largest financial market in the world, Forex is also the most liquid market in the world where trades are done 24 hours a day.</p>
<p>A lot of traders have become very rich trading in the Forex market. And, many people who trade in the Forex market everyday have found a great way to replace their day jobs. Some even became millionaires almost overnight by just trading in this financial market.</p>
<p>Trading in the Forex market can be very attractive. However, you should also know that there have been people who suffered extreme financial losses in the Forex market. It is true that the Forex market offers a very good money-making opportunity to a lot of people, but it also has its risks.</p>
<p>It is a fact that people who didn&#8217;t have the right knowledge and skills trading in the Forex market suffered huge financial losses and some even went into debt. So, before you enter the Forex market, it is essential that you should have the necessary knowledge and skills as a Forex trader in order to minimize the risk of losing money and maximize the potential of making money.</p>
<p>Many people who were successful in the Forex market have went through a Forex trading course to get the knowledge and skills needed to successfully trade in this very liquid and very large financial market.</p>
<p>In a Forex trading course, you will learn about when it is the right time to buy or sell, chart the movements, spot market trends and also know how to use the different trading platforms available in the Forex market.</p>
<p>You will also be familiarized with the terminologies used in the Forex market. Even the basic knowledge about trading in the Forex market can be a great help with your money-making venture in the worldís largest market.</p>
<p>There are different Forex trading courses available, all you need to do is choose one that suits your needs as a trader. There are crash courses where all the basic things about Forex will be taught to you in a short period of time, full time online courses, where you will learn all about Forex through the internet and there are also full time real life classroom courses where you can learn the ropes about Forex in a real classroom with a live professor.</p>
<p>You can also become an apprentice. However, in order to learn a lot about Forex as an apprentice, you need to make sure that you have a seasoned Forex trader who can share a lot of things to you about the Forex market.</p>
<p>Here are some of the basic things you should look for in a Forex trading course in order for you to get the sufficient knowledge about Forex trading:</p>
<p>ï	Margins<br />
ï	Leveraging<br />
ï	Types of orders<br />
ï	Major currencies</p>
<p>A good Forex trading course will also explain a lot about the fundamental and technical analysis of charts. As a trader, knowing how to analyze a chart is an essential skill that you should have. So, when you are looking for a Forex trading course, you should look for a course that offers fundamental and technical analysis instruction.</p>
<p>Stress plays a vital part in Forex traders. Knowing how to deal with stress is also a skill that you should develop. A good Forex trading course should teach you how to deal with stress and trade effectively and efficiently.</p>
<p>As much as possible, you should look for a Forex trading course that offer actual trading systems where students can trade real money on the Forex market or at least trade on dummy accounts in a simulated Forex market. This hands-on experience will greatly benefit you. Besides, the best way to learn about anything is by actually experiencing it. Live trading and simulations should be offered in a Forex trading course.</p>
<p>So, if you plan on getting involved in the Forex market, consider finding all these things in a Forex trading course. Developing the right knowledge and skills in trading in the world&#8217;s largest and most liquid market in the world will definitely help you make it to the top and achieve your dreams as a Forex trader.</p>
<p>Contact Me With Any Questions   strignanoforex@gmail.com</p>
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		<title>Trend Reactionary Numbers Killing The Market  Again!!!</title>
		<link>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/07/12/trend-reactionary-numbers-killing-market-again/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Jul 2011 16:35:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom Strignano</dc:creator>
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		<title>Support and Resistance Zones</title>
		<link>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/07/11/support-resistance-zones/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Jul 2011 15:45:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom Strignano</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Because technical analysis is not an exact science, it is useful to create support and resistance zones. Each security or Currency has its own characteristics, and analysis should reflect the intricacies of the security. Sometimes, exact support and resistance levels are best, and, sometimes, zones work better. Generally, the tighter the range, the more exact [...]]]></description>
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<p>Because technical analysis is not an exact science, it is useful to create support and resistance zones. Each security or Currency has its own characteristics, and analysis should reflect the intricacies of the security. Sometimes, exact support and resistance levels are best, and, sometimes, zones work better. Generally, the tighter the range, the more exact the level. If the trading range spans less than 2 months and the price range is relatively tight, then more exact support and resistance levels are best suited. If a trading range spans many months and the price range is relatively large, then it is best to use support and resistance zones. These are only meant as general guidelines, and each trading range should be judged on its own merits. </p>
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<p>We can see that the  high of the trading range extended more than 20% past the low, making the range quite large relative to the price. Because the  support break forms our first resistance level, we are ready to set up a resistance zone after the the new  high is formed. At this point though, we are still unsure if a large trading range will develop. The subsequent low , which was just higher than the previous low, offers evidence that a trading range is forming, and we are ready to set the support zone. As long as the curreny trades within the boundaries set by the support and resistance zone, we will consider the trading range to be valid. Support may be looked upon as an opportunity to buy, and resistance as an opportunity to sell.</p>
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		<title>Support &amp; Resistance Minor Lesson Part II</title>
		<link>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/07/08/support-resistance-minor-lesson-part-ii/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Jul 2011 13:05:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom Strignano</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[What Is Resistance? Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance [...]]]></description>
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<p>What Is Resistance?<br />
Resistance is the price level at which selling is thought to be strong enough to prevent the price from rising further. The logic dictates that as the price advances towards resistance, sellers become more inclined to sell and buyers become less inclined to buy. By the time the price reaches the resistance level, it is believed that supply will overcome demand and prevent the price from rising above resistance.</p>
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<p>Resistance does not always hold and a break above resistance signals that the bulls have won out over the bears. A break above resistance shows a new willingness to buy and/or a lack of incentive to sell. Resistance breaks and new highs indicate buyers have increased their expectations and are willing to buy at even higher prices. In addition, sellers could not be coerced into selling until prices rose above resistance or above the previous high. Once resistance is broken, another resistance level will have to be established at a higher level.</p>
<p>Where Is Resistance Established?<br />
Resistance levels are usually above the current price, but it is not uncommon for a security to trade at or near resistance. In addition, price movements can be volatile and rise above resistance briefly. Sometimes it does not seem logical to consider a resistance level broken if the price closes .125<br />
above the established resistance level. For this reason, some traders and investors establish resistance zones.</p>
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		<title>Bond Yields Part II</title>
		<link>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/07/06/bond-yields-part-ii/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jul 2011 13:57:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom Strignano</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Similar to the implied forward rates computed from the U.S. Treasury yield curve, forward rates for the United Kingdom can be found by reversing back down the government yield curve. The implied forward rates approximately are parallel to — and slightly lower than — the short sterling rates. The government yield curve in each country [...]]]></description>
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<p>Similar to the implied forward rates computed from the U.S. Treasury yield curve, forward rates for the United Kingdom can be found by reversing back down the government yield curve. The implied forward rates approximately are parallel to — and slightly lower than — the short sterling rates. The government yield curve in each country or market is the determinant of short-term interest rate futures as well as the forward rates on government interest-bearing securities.</p>
<p>Four currently-traded interest rate futures contracts are shown on &#8220;90-day interest rate futures&#8221; (below). In addition to Eurodollar rates listed by CME Group, these include euribor, NYSE Liffe Eurodollar and short-sterling futures. Although they start at different rates, the four contracts converge at approximately 4% after 16 quarters on April 14, 2011. With the Federal Reserve holding U.S. rates for one-quarter delivery dates at extremely low levels, the 1.50% euribor rate (for 90-day euro-related rates) looks surprisingly high in comparison. The shortest-term rate on 90-day sterling futures is in the middle at 1.00%.</p>
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<p>The curves of 90-day rate-to-yield ratios also vary between interest-rate futures markets. These are the &#8220;flex&#8221; curves described in &#8220;Eurodollar futures: Rate, yield and price structures&#8221; (May 2010). When interest rates are at a low level, as they currently are in the United States, the ratio of rates-to-yields will increase. As shown on &#8220;Ratios of rates to yields&#8221; (below), on April 19, 2011 Eurodollar futures rates topped a two-to-one ratio over yields at approximately the two-year, or eight-quarter, mark in number of quarters to maturity. At the same time, the ratios for the European Central Bank (ECB) on average increased from 1.0 to 1.4.</p>
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<p>Tracing ratios<br />
The ratio of rates-to-yields is not a predictor of rate changes, but can be an important factor when rates change. As interest rates rise in the United States — which they invariably will do at some point — the ratio will fall, rewarding long positions in Eurodollar futures over a range of expiration dates compared to the more stable yields on T-note and interest rate swaps futures at the same maturities.<br />
On April 22, 2011 the price of a five-year T-note futures contract was 116-07, or $116,227, with a yield of 2.525%. An immediate increase of 100 basis points in yield would result in a new price of $111,255 — down $4,972 due to the increase in yield. A spread trade using a two-to-one ratio of March 2016 Eurodollar futures against the five-year T-note produces a slight loss, with the long-side Eurodollar futures down 2 x $2,500. However, &#8220;Ratios of rates-to-yields&#8221; shows that the increase in yield should be accompanied by a decrease in the rate-to-yield ratio from 1.80 to 1.40 or lower. This should give an edge in trade results to the long Eurodollar futures as they lose less than the short T-note futures.<br />
At any time, the structure of Eurodollar yields at different maturities is determined by the sequence of short-term (quarterly) rates, with the underlying objective of matching the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The same process is at work in different interest-rate markets, although the levels of rates, yields and ratios of rates-to-yields vary.<br />
Whether or not a trader believes that interest rates can be predicted by looking at forward rates or the yield curve — or whether changes in government bond yields precede or follow shifts in forward rates — it still is worthwhile to observe the relationships between quarterly rates and yields at various maturities. Changes in the curves of quarterly rates, forward rates or longer-term yields provide the speculative profits and losses as well as the benefits of hedging that are the underlying reasons for the existence of the market for interest-rate futures and options.</p>
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		<title>Bond Yields</title>
		<link>http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/07/05/bond-yields/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Jul 2011 17:28:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Tom Strignano</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Computer programs enabling analysts to calculate minor changes between interest rates and yields throughout the fixed income world create exploitable opportunities for the bond trader. Here, we will review the efficient relationships between various rates and yields to arrive at several conclusions: that the yield curves on government securities are the prime determinants of interest [...]]]></description>
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<p>Computer programs enabling analysts to calculate minor changes between interest rates and yields throughout the fixed income world create exploitable opportunities for the bond trader. Here, we will review the efficient relationships between various rates and yields to arrive at several conclusions:</p>
<p>    that the yield curves on government securities are the prime determinants of interest rates in every market;<br />
    that forward rates are not predictors of future interest rates, but are determined by the need to conform to the current government bond yield curve, and<br />
    that the terms &#8220;forward&#8221; and &#8220;futures&#8221; are misleading if Eurodollar rates and forward rates are tied continuously and directly to government securities yields-to-maturity.</p>
<p>Yields at specific maturities for bonds and interest rate futures represent one side of the rate-yield coin. For any maturity, the yield is the end product of a sequence of shorter-term rates that progress in terms of geometric mean rates to the listed yield for a bond or interest rate futures contract. Knowing the yield at a given maturity and the immediately preceding yield permits calculation of the rate of interest (the forward rate) for the corresponding short-term period. Interest rates that cover a single short-term period are forward rates, while yields are the result of linked forward rate sequences.</p>
<p>Because of the relatively large number of short-term rates for eurodollar futures — 40 quarterly rates leading to yields-to-maturity up to 10 years — these contracts are ideal for analyzing long- and short-term interest rate markets. Trading through each day shows continuous pricing patterns for the 40 quarterly Eurodollar futures rates. Eurodollar yields are not listed, and must be calculated from the chain of geometric means computed from short-term quarterly Eurodollar futures rates, beginning with the London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor).</p>
<p>Conversely, the yields on U.S. Treasury notes and bonds at different maturities are known, while the implied 90-day forward rates leading to yields at specific maturities are not listed and must be calculated by reversing the sequence of geometric means from the longest-term yield back down the yield curve. When both sets of calculations are complete, as shown on &#8220;Eurodollar and Treasury forward rates&#8221; (below), we can see that the computed Eurodollar yields are intrinsically tied to the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and that the computed Treasury forward rates are aligned closely with Eurodollar quarterly rates.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/07/05/bond-yields/image1forblog/" rel="attachment wp-att-1435"><img src="http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/image1forblog-300x207.png" alt="" title="image1forblog" width="300" height="207" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-1435" /></a></p>
<p>Comparing yields</p>
<p>The Eurodollar yield curve is higher than the U.S. Treasury yield curve because of the risk differential between risk-free government securities and 90-day dollar deposits, and the need for Eurodollar futures to offset their lack of convexity — a straight-line price change at $25 per basis point compared to the convex bond price curve. On &#8220;Two yield curves&#8221; (below) the risk/convexity spread of Eurodollar yields over Treasury yields is approximately 50 basis points on April 19, 2011. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/2011/07/05/bond-yields/image2forblog/" rel="attachment wp-att-1436"><img src="http://www.tomstrignanoforexexclusive.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/image2forblog-300x208.png" alt="" title="image2forblog" width="300" height="208" class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-1436" /></a></p>
<p>&#8220;Two yield curves&#8221; shows how closely correlated the Eurodollar yield curve is with the U.S. Treasury yield curve. Each Eurodollar quarterly rate must be in its proper place for the two curves to fit together, and a shift in Treasury yields must be reflected in Eurodollar rate and yield changes. At the same time, the Treasury yield curve immediately determines, through arbitrage, the yields and prices of other interest rate futures, including two-, five- and 10-year T-note futures and futures contacts on interest rate swaps.</p>
<p>Just as the Eurodollar yield curve can be used to describe the shape and individual quarterly yields along the U.S. Treasury yield curve, the 90-day interest rate futures of non-U.S. markets should respond to their individual government security yield curves. For example, &#8220;Short sterling rates and yields&#8221; (below) shows 90-day short sterling futures rates and the yield curve that is created from quarterly sterling rates. The risk-convexity spread between the yield curves is 50 basis points for most of 16 quarters of futures delivery dates. </p>
<p>Part 2 Tomorrow!</p>
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