Posts Tagged ‘gbp’

Forex IBPs

Forex Talk In The Street~ Swiss Snub The Irish Maybe Euro Swiss Is Reason!

Why the SNB “snubbed” Irish debt earlier this week is because the
Bank has swollen its reserves so enormously with EURs that it hasn’t the “fire power” nor the temerity to take on further risk by owing more European sovereign debt. Once burned, twice shy as the old aphorism goes. But what about thrice burned?

Just how much money will the people of Switzerland allow the Swiss National Bank to lose before they collective say to the gentleman at the helm to “cease and desist” from their actions in the forex market.
Traders noted four months ago, and three months ago and
two and last month that the SNB’s efforts early last year
to stem the Franc’s rise relative to the EUR were ill advised
and costly. Those costs have simply grown much, much worse. A year ago, it “cost” 1.48 Chf to buy one EUR. The SNB believed that the Franc was then too expensive, and so it began one of the truly wondrously losing efforts at intervention we
can recall, selling the Franc and buying the EUR. The cross proceeded to 1.40 and then 1.35 and then 1.30 and now it is 1.25 and the trend is still downward. The Street is talking here about tens of billions of dollars lost in this horrifically bad forex venture. Indeed, when the final accounting is done years from now, this may well have been the singularly worst forex trade ever done and shall be proof very positive that intelligence is not always a benefit in the world of trading.

Trend Reactionary Numbers A Deeper Explaination

Tired of Trading using Lagging Indicators like MACD, EMAs,
and the real mysterious Stochastic RSI. Are you always one
step behind the Forex market, left frustrated and baffled?
Well I am here to tell you its not your fault! You were lead
down the bunny trail by all the propaganda about the Public
indicators as I call them. They come with all charts so they
have to be good,right? Wrong. If you ask 5 different traders
how they use these indicators you will get 6-7
hallucinogenic answers. What if you had a Forward looking
indicator based solely on price and wave patterns that was
battle tested in the interbank market? What if this
indicator could tell you with a high degree of accuracy
where a currency would reverse of if the level was broken
zoom to the next preplanned level? Do you think you would be
more profitable knowing these points ahead of time? You bet
your bananas you would!

Lets Go one step further. What if this indicator also
helped you determine if the trend of a currency would
continue? You could then fade(go against) the noise with
confidence and make more Pips.

Do you think that this indicator would be of substantial
help in your trading?

Of course it would help you gain massive pips.

The Indicator I am about to introduce to you is my Trend
Reactionary Numbers. My students call them TRNs for short,
and they wouldn’t think about trading without them.

Trend Reactionary Numbers are like super unknown pivots for
the retail trader(except major banks have similar points.)
These Points are major points in the market place.
Currencies with gravitate to them and also at times be
repelled by them.

How did I come up with these numbers that my Inner Circle
of traders calls magic? This is a question I always get
asked, I will never reveal the method but I am happy to
share the output. I will give you an overview though, I have
developed these numbers by follow what all major banks look
at. That is Chaos theory and a similar system to Elliott
wave theory. Chaos theory was first introduced as a model by
Ed Lorenz back in 1965. He applied the theory to
meteorology. It has come to be a major landmark for changes
to current thinking on mathematics,economics,biology and
statistics. Like Fibonacci levels Chaos Theory can be found
in Heart pulses, clock’s oscillating movement like a
pendulum and economic fluctuations, they all show a dynamic
non linear behavior. With a Fibonacci Wave count added to
the Chaos model I can ascertain a very accurate model for
future support and resistance. Now the main point is that
these points are never fixed they float. They are have
usually been good for 3-6 weeks. Since the market is always
in Flux(Chaos.) I reset these points when the market signals
me its time to reset them. I do not manufacture these points
the market does. These are my version of major wave points
that are defined.

These points are the major points that I am looking to
exploit in the market. They help me define low risk high
reward areas to take a trade. They also help me stay out of
the market when the noise level is just to high and prevent
me from taking suboptimal trades. So they are extremely
valuable. I am always looking to work to and from these
points to gain major pips. Since these points are forward
looking you can trade them as a stand alone system.

Using a harmonic wave calculation I can gauge my s/l at
these Trend Reactionary Numbers. Its easy to find just go
back and get the Average True Range (ATR) of a currency for
the last 20 days. I will look to buy a break of these points
and use a percentage of the Average True Range as a s/l. It
is usually 35-50 pips. Conversely I will look to sell
Rallies at these points always gauging market price
momentum. Since these points are based on three major
theories, we find that markets always move from irrational
exuberance to dysphoria. All price action will come back to
the moving middle eventually. These points give you those
levels with a high degree of accuracy.

Trend Reactionary Numbers are usually anywhere from 150-300
pips away from each other. Sometimes they can be a smaller
range, but as I said the market manufactures these points I
just follow them. If the market is approaching a TRN on the
upside(Its rallying) I will look to sell it, and gauge the
markets price action at that point. Conversely if the market
is falling to one I will look to buy it. i look to catch
moves from one TRN to the other, of course I don t always
get that, but I employ a trailing stop when in the money. As
Wd Gann said “Never make a good trade turn into a bad trade,
protect your capital.” I and many of my students catch these
moves quite frequently, these points are amazing. I have to
say at times I have disregarded them, somehow thinking since
I found them i could toy with them. I have always gotten
burned. Just being candid here.

Here are Some Trend Reactionary Numbers for the month of
January 2011. They should be good for anywhere between 3 to
6 weeks. Like I said they are in flux and the market sets
these.(I plot these points for all the major Currency Pairs
and the Related Crosses. Cross pairs such as
GBP/YEN,GBP/NZD,EUR/YEN,EUR/GBP,AUD/YEN,AUD/CAD etc. They
are extremely accurate.) Each Currency has its own
calculation, based on its Fibonacci wave and chaos
signature. I can also plot these points for Stocks and
Commodities upon request.I will post three majors here. You
can use these on your charts to see there accuracy and
power. The ones listed will be Euro,GBP and GBP/Yen:

Euro/Dollar: 1.3610,1.3487,1.3330,1.3143,1.3012,1.2935,1.2747,1.2576,1.2040,1.1864

GBP: 1.6123,1.5981,1.5688,1.5521,1.5467,1.5246,1.5025,1.4723,1.4490,1.4027,1.3723,1.3588

GBP/JPY:144.98,140.86,139.42,135.93,132.44,130.70,128.95,127.48,125.63,119.99,118.66

Remember as I always say Enjoy The Party…Dance Near The
Door!
For those That are Interested in the new membership site (coming soon) to get All the TRNs and the In-between-Points please email me. You will be put on the waiting list. email strignanostrns@gmail.com

Forex Talk In The Street ~ One Of The PIIGS Squealing. Portugal Back In The News!

Europe and European problems are back upon the world’s centre stage, with everyone focusing their attention today upon Portugal. The Portuguese have to come to the capital markets for the first of what shall be many such offerings by that government and the first of what
shall be even more offerings by the remainder of the PIIGS(Portugal,Ireland,Italy,Greece and Spain. Just in case you forgotten!) this year. The waters are to be tested and this test
shall set the stage for the myriad tests to come. Late last year, Lisbon
announced that it would need to fund €18-20 billion this year, down from m€22 billion in ’10. That was a bit of good news of course for every bit less of debt to be auctioned is a good thing, but as we
begin the year amidst confusion one has to ask oneself what shall be the propensity on the part of investors around the world to step into the breech and buy Portuguese sovereign debt. Certainly the yields are
attractive, but the uncertainty is large and the trade to own Portuguese debt is a career destroying one if one is wrong and the Porgies head on toward default. For an institutional buyer the risk/reward scenario is skewed rather archly: be right in the purchase and one shall get a
modest pat upon the back for earning a few hundred basis points more on the term, but be wrong and see the Portuguese government default or more to fall from the Union and not only does one see one’s investment tumble, but one’s career is shot through, beaten and
killed. Still Many a hungry Credit Officer will take the chance! Proclaiming The Euro Will not fail!!! I had heard that hungry cry for basis points many times before. Thank God Aldo, overruled those hallucinogenic folks, or my career might have been shorter! Well back on point..
The Portages have promised the ECB/IMF/the world that they will bring their deficit/GDP ratio down from last year’s 7.3% to 4.6%. I, and others, wonder aloud how this shall be accomplished, for the spending cuts
required to make that adjustment are enormous, and so too is the strength in the economy necessary. To accomplish that task, spending must be cut AND the economy must grow and both have to be effected
materially. I applaud Lisbon for even making the statement( but for me this is like a salesman overcoming objections before they are raised) that it intends to meet this target, but count me amongst the skeptical.

Talk In The Street~November 15th

The dollar on the  FOREX MARKET as the new trading week begins is mixed, for it has risen proportional to some of its major and
its minor currency trading partners while it has fallen comparative to others. Try as we might, notwithstanding, we see
little in the way of consistency in how the dollar has reacted since the end of the G20 meetings, for it has fallen relative to the EUR and Sterling, but it has risen relative to the Swiss franc; in other words it knows not what to do relative to Europe generally. If there is one consistency it is that currencies that are “China related”‚Ķ that is currencies where there is more Chinese trade related interest than in others‚Ķ such as the Yen and the Aussie and Kiwi dollars‚Ķ have weakened the most relative to the US dollar; otherwise
incompatibility reigns.

Concerning the G20 meetings, the consensus is that the Presidency has suffered a series of defeats at the meetings, coming home with little that was on its agenda to accomplish. We’ll not debate too greatly with that judgement, for the US went to the meetings hoping
to come away with rather strict numeric rules regarding trade deficits, budget deficits and the like and hoping too to come home with some consensus amongst the attendees that China’s currency policies were wrong and needed to be accompanied too.
The US may not have wanted to have China named directly in the post-meeting communiqu√©, but it diindeed hope that there might be some talk of “undervaluation”of the YUAN  at the very least. It got nothing of the sort.

To that end then the meetings were a disappointment, and for President Obama, who only a year and one half ago reigned exultant, having been adorned with a newly granted Nobel Peace Prize, they were a embarrassment. Reality is a harsh mistress. From my perspective, however, these meetings are always overhyped and the best that one can accomplish is to know that the lines of communication are always made more open amongst the attending nations, and that’s all we got was lip service!
Euro $ projected Range 1.3500-1.3820

GBP$  1.6190 1.5850.